CINCINNATI -- A few Wednesday thoughts while I sit along the banks of the Ohio River and munch on some ribs (not a euphemism; Montgomery Inn is far better than that silly Cincy chili):
-- The Rangers' 3-0 loss Tuesday put them into negative run differential for the year - they've been outscored by two runs for the season. Run differential should be a pretty good guide on how "good" a team is vs. how "lucky."
No AL team has won its division with a negative run differential since Minnesota was outscored by 20 runs in 1987. The Twins won just 85 games during the regular season and it should be noted it's going to take more to win the AL West this year, but when they won every home postseason game, they ended up as World Champs. And I don't believe the trophy says "lucky" anywhere on it.
-- Derek Holland had good results in his return from the DL: Six innings, one run. It was a very hopeful performance for the remainder of the regular season, but we should also take into account a couple of things.
Namely, Holland was facing an NL team, playing under NL rules and not a very good NL lineup at that. Cincinnati ranked 10th in the NL in batting average, 11th in OPS.
Also, Bob Davidson was behind the plate and, ol' Bob, is more often in tune with pitchers' balk moves and fans' heckling than the strike zone.
So, everything looked good, but I think you get a better idea when Holland faces Cleveland on Sunday.
-- According to brooksbaseball.net, Holland did not throw a single four-seam fastball on Tuesday. It was the first time since his return from the DL in 2014 that he didn't throw a four-seamer (or a fairly significant number of them) in a start. It should be noted that manager Jeff Banister talked about Holland's "strikeability" with his fastball Tuesday. Deduction: Maybe Holland should focus on the sinker as his exclusive fastball of choice for the time being.
-- Biggest strategy question of Tuesday was why pitch to Joey Votto with two outs, a runner on and first base open in the sixth inning? I asked Banister after the game: His response, he liked the left-on-left matchup of Holland vs. Votto rather than face right-hander Adam Duvall with two on. While Votto has been red hot and hits better vs. lefties than right-handers, Duvall did have a higher OPS (.816) vs. lefties than Votto (.800). Not sure if there are enough at-bats or a big enough difference to make those numbers significant, but putting extra runners on base for middle-of-the-order-hitters in a scoreless game is always dangerous.
Also, it should be noted Holland might have gotten squeezed by Davidson on a 2-2 pitch and the full-count pitch which Votto served into right field looked like a decent slider. Votto also was just 2 for 15 against sliders from lefties this season, according to MLB's Statcast system.
-- Finally, Tim Tebow. The Rangers will send a scout to watch his workout next week, but my Twitter timeline last night was filled with various beat guys all reporting that their local club would also send a scout. And every one of them used "due diligence" to couch the reason teams were attending. Clubs will attend out of respect for Tebow's athleticism, but the chances of a 29-year-old, who hasn't played organized baseball in a decade showing enough to warrant any kind of investment are slim, at best.
Signing him and putting him in a minor league clubhouse would create a sideshow that would be a distraction to development. Think that's going to outweigh any value/goodwill from helping a minor league affiliate sell some tickets to watch Tebow play. I think he's got independent ball written all over him, if he wants to play baseball.
Twitter: @Evan_P_Grant
Get the latest Rangers news here | Follow @dmn_rangers on Twitter | Like our Rangers Facebook page here
