ARLINGTON -- His rehab now officially complete, the focus changes for the Rangers from getting Yu Darvish back in the rotation to keeping him there.
This may be even trickier.
Like other teams before them when dealing with a Tommy John patient, the Rangers plan to keep Darvish on a pitch limit after he returns to the rotation Saturday against Pittsburgh. He’s unlikely to throw more than 85-90 pitches, pitching coach Doug Brocail said Tuesday. And it may be a while before the club starts to increase the number it allows him to throw.
For the longer term, the Rangers will also watch his innings, too, in hopes of having him available for the possibility of October baseball without significantly increasing the risk of a fatigue-based injury.
“I think our initial process is to start with a pitch count process first,” manager Jeff Banister said. “With any pitcher that has been injured, you gauge the innings based on how they perform and the stress level of each inning.
“Is there an end mark [for innings]? That’s one of those questions where you can back yourself into a corner. It’s not as clean as just saying we’re going to limit him to 145 innings or 150 innings or whatever the number. How they get there is important. We will monitor each game, stress innings and if there are any setbacks.”
Of course, it’s not a “clean” process. Just ask the New York Mets, who had quite a mess on their hands last year after it was announced that Matt Harvey’s supposedly pre-imposed innings limit of 180 was fast approaching, just as the Mets were about to start the playoffs.
The handling of Harvey is an easy comparison for Darvish. They are both right-handed power pitchers. That, however, is where the similarities end. Harvey returned from surgery to start the season. Darvish is returning seven weeks in. Harvey had much more time to build up innings on the arm. Darvish may have 20-22 starts -- if the Rangers don’t ever sit him down for turn of the rotation. Averaging six innings per start, that would put him at 120-135 innings.
Perhaps a better comp: Miami’s Jose Fernandez, who returned last July after a 13-month recovery. Fernandez averaged 89.4 pitches for his first five outings and only went to 100 pitches one time in 11 starts. Fernandez averaged just over 5.2 innings per start in 2015.
Darvish had a 14-month recovery and returns with five more weeks of season remaining than Fernandez. The possibility exists to pile up more innings, but only if Darvish is more efficient with his pitch count and more judicious on when to use breaking pitches.
For his career, Darvish averages 16.4 pitches per inning. At that rate, he’d make it through about 5.1 or 5.2 innings per night on a 90-95 pitch count limit.
The other aspect the Rangers will look at are “stress” innings, typically innings of more than 20 pitches. Darvish has a propensity for high pitch counts in early innings, which will put a premium on finding the zone and what’s working for him early. In his last 30 starts, Darvish threw more than 20 pitches in the first inning 10 times. During that time, he averaged 17.7 pitches in the first inning.
“Hopefully he gets out there and uses his fastball and gets early outs, uses his breaking pitches wisely and gets us deep in the game,” Brocail said.
But, the pitching coach also acknowledged Darvish’s affinity for the strikeout may lead to longer at-bats as he sets up the strikeout pitch.
“As much as I’d like to have him use his fastball, Yu Darvish is Yu Darvish and he’s going to pitch how he knows how to pitch,” Brocail added. “It’s like bringing in any new guy and saying `You’re going to pitch this way.’ That’s not going to happen. Yu knows how to get guys out. He spins the ball probably better than anybody in the game. That’s how he’s going to approach it.”
If so, the Rangers are going to have to monitor him that much more closely.
They don’t want the story of the season to be Darvish’s May comeback, but rather his strong October run.
Twitter: @Evan_P_Grant
