Stars 2024 playoff preview: What could Dallas’ road to the Stanley Cup Finals look like?

The Stars will begin their run for the franchise’s second Stanley Cup title when they host the Vegas Golden Knights on Monday night in Game 1 of their first-round series.

Dallas is in the playoffs for the third consecutive year and is coming off an appearance in the Western Conference final last season.

Facing the team that eliminated them last year, the Stars will have a challenging road from the start. But as one of the deepest teams in the league with a mix of veteran leadership and rising stars, this year’s team could have a chance at reaching the finals for the fourth time in franchise history.

Here is a preview of the Stars’ 2024 Stanley Cup playoff road:

Toughest road yet?

For weeks, coaches and players in Dallas have preached how difficult the Western Conference has been this year just from the standpoint of reaching the playoffs. Winning the conference’s regular-season title meant something because it gave them home-ice advantage through the first three rounds of what is bound to be a gauntlet of a run.

The Stars open the playoffs facing not only the team that eliminated them last year, but the reigning Stanley Cup champions. Yes, the Vegas team they played last May — or even in the fall — is different from the one they’ll face over the next two weeks. But still, it’s a tough draw.

If the Stars can avenge their loss to Vegas, they’ll earn a date with the winner of the Winnipeg-Colorado series. The Central Division was the most top-heavy in hockey this year, and neither Colorado nor Winnipeg deserves to be eliminated in the first round. However, one will. While Dallas had more success against Winnipeg in the regular season, both potential series could easily go to seven games and will be draining for whichever team survives.

If that happens to be Dallas, they’ll face one of four teams in the conference finals: Vancouver, Edmonton, Los Angeles or Nashville. With Vancouver and Edmonton appearing to be the more likely, the Stars would have to play some of the league’s best players in that series, including Edmonton’s Connor McDavid or Vancouver goalie Thatcher Demko.

Only after all of that would the Stars get to even think about playing in the Stanley Cup Finals against whoever emerges from the Eastern Conference.

“You’ve got to beat the best to be the best. There is no easy path,” Stars coach Pete DeBoer said Friday. “You could argue last year we drew Minnesota and Seattle, and if you guys are sitting here on Day 1 of the playoffs, you probably would have said, ‘Boy, that’s about an easy a path as you can draw up to the conference finals.’ And when I look back, both of those teams took a big piece out of us that affected us in the conference final. They were both really tough outs. There’s no right opponent or perfect opponent. You’ve got to beat whoever they throw in front of you.”

Star power along the way

The Stars are poised to face some of the league’s best players throughout their postseason run with each matchup featuring a massive challenge on the other side.

In the Vegas series, Jonathan Marchessault is having the best year of his career, scoring a team-high 42 goals and 69 points. Last year, he scored four goals and three assists against Dallas in the playoffs and only ranked third on the team in points with 28 goals in the regular season. While he did not score on Dallas in their three regular-season meetings, he will be one of the most dangerous players, alongside Jack Eichel, for the Stars to contain in the first round.

In the second round, both Colorado and Winnipeg have a clear best player. For Colorado, Dallas would have to contain Nathan MacKinnon, also having the best season of his career with 140 points (51 goals, 89 assists). He finished second in the league in points in the regular season.

Winnipeg is led by goalie Connor Hellebuyck, who won the William M. Jennings Trophy as the goaltender who played at least 25 games and allowed the fewest goals. The Vezina frontrunner has a 36-19-4 record with a .921 save percentage, 2.39 goals-against average and five shutouts.

The Western Conference finals could see the Stars matching up with Connor McDavid, arguably the top offensive threat in the league, who had 32 goals and 100 assists for Edmonton this year. If the Stars match up with Vancouver, they’d face another elite goaltender in Thatcher Demko, who has a 35-14-2 record this year with a .918 save percentage, 2.45 goals-against average and five shutouts.

Their greatest advantage

The Stars have two significant advantages going for them that could be the difference in reaching the Stanley Cup Finals or winning it all.

As the regular-season Western Conference champions, Dallas has home-ice advantage throughout the first three rounds and will have it in the finals unless it plays the New York Rangers. DeBoer has said that home ice does not matter much in the playoffs, except for Game 7.

Given the caliber of opponents Dallas would have to face in the West, it’s safe to assume that at least one series, if not multiple, will go to seven games. That’s where the home-ice advantage could make a major difference.

Additionally, Dallas has unmatched depth this year with a league-high eight players scoring 20 or more goals. The Stars don’t have to worry about their top goal scorer going cold or one line not playing at its best early in the playoffs because it has three others that can contribute — and really five if you count Evgenii Dadonov, Ty Dellandrea and Mavrik Bourque, who could be called up again soon.

The playoffs are long, and the Stanley Cup is one of the toughest trophies to win in sports, so Dallas will need to rely on that depth for a deep run. It’s what allowed Vegas to win it all last year.

Where they could fall short

Both last year in the playoffs and throughout this regular season, Dallas got in a habit of playing from behind. The Stars fell behind 2-1 in both series they won last year and 3-0 in the Vegas series. They also pulled off a franchise-record 26 comeback wins in the regular season this year.

To win the Stanley Cup, the Stars need to get out to a strong start and make other teams try to catch them with their speed and scoring ability. They cannot play catchup through three rounds of the playoffs.

Additionally, Dallas could run into some trouble with injuries, especially on its defense. As mentioned, the Stars have five forward lines they could roll, so even if a forward gets hurt, they have someone who can fill in. With Jani Hakanpää still hurt to start the playoffs, the Stars only have six healthy defensemen — and only five that are consistently playing normal minutes. Staying healthy is critical to the Stars’ success.

Finally, the Dallas-Winnipeg game a week ago showed what can happen if the Stars fall into the trap of playing another team’s style. Dallas has played an offensive-focused, high-paced game this year, but that is not characteristic of playoff hockey. They will have to adjust to more low-scoring affairs and heavy-hitting contests in each round. The Stars will need to do their best to control the pace and stick to their game, even if it strays from typical playoff hockey.

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